Paths to a self-driving future

A future in which self-driving cars define the traffic landscape: what will this look like and when could we expect this future to arrive, either solely on highways or everywhere? Great uncertainty surrounds these questions. If technological development is rapid, the technology affordable, self-driving cars attractive to car drivers and the societal impacts positive, a ‘self-driving future’ is highly probable. Policy measures moreover can accelerate this transition to a self-driving future. Concurrently, ‘showstoppers’ may emerge: developments that impede the transition.